Australian Property Auction Market Report – June 2026

Week ending Sunday 21 June 2026, Australia’s auction market weakened further, with the latest preliminary data from Cotality showing:

Combined capital city clearance rate: 47.4%

This marks a significant psychological and structural threshold:

• First sub-50% result since April 2020 (COVID-19 period)
• Signals clear decline in buyer urgency
• Indicates shift in vendor strategy (more withdrawals + pre-sales)

Capital City Performance: Australian Property Auction Market Report

The headline insight is clear:

Buyers are active, but they are not rushing.

This reflects a market where:

• Buyers are present but selective
• Decision-making is slower and more analytical
• Emotional bidding is significantly reduced
• Price sensitivity is increasing across all segments

Key Drivers

• Mortgage rates generally above 6%
• Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate at 4.35%
• Uncertainty around:
  • Negative gearing changes
  • Capital gains tax concessions

Vendor Behaviour Shift

• ~24% of auctions withdrawn
• ~45% of sales happening before auction
• More vendors prioritising certainty over competition

The practical takeaway for the Melbourne audience of Ham Kerr Property is straightforward: auction campaigns are still feasible, but only if buyer management, presentation, and pricing expectations are all in line from the start. Strong outcomes are still achievable in the current market for realistic vendors, closely held lifestyle assets, school-zone properties, and well-positioned family houses. However, properties with ambitious price guides, major renovation requirements, main-road exposure, or limited emotional appeal are increasingly vulnerable to pass-ins or post-auction negotiations.

Regional Victoria (Relative Strength)

Geelong, Ballarat, and Bendigo continue to outperform relative to metro markets due to:

• Affordability advantage
• Lifestyle migration
• Rental demand
• Infrastructure growth

Summary of Australian Property Auction Market Report – June 2026

The market is buyer-leaning. Volumes are easing, buyers are negotiating harder, vendors are withdrawing more often, and outcomes now depend heavily on accurate pricing and presentation.

National Clearance Rate Performance

The national auction result for the week ending 21 June 2026 sits firmly in buyer-leaning territory, reflecting a continued imbalance between vendor expectations and buyer willingness to pay.

A clearance rate below 60% typically indicates buyers have the advantage. When the rate drops below 50%, it signals a more material lack of urgency and a widening gap between pricing expectations and actual market demand.

At 47.4%, the preliminary combined-capital result points to one of the weakest auction weeks in several years.

Preliminary Clearance Rates

Key Market Highlights: Australian Property Auction Market Report

This result was further influenced by seasonal factors. Winter conditions typically lead to lower auction volumes during June and July, and softer market conditions often encourage vendors to postpone or delay campaigns. However, the current weakness appears to extend beyond normal seasonality. Data and reporting from Cotality and national media highlighted that approximately 24% of scheduled auctions were withdrawn, while nearly half of successful sales occurred prior to auction day. This combination suggests a clear behavioural shift, with vendors increasingly prioritising certainty and risk reduction over full auction exposure.

For agents and vendors, this national picture reinforces the need for more disciplined campaign execution. While buyer enquiry remains present in the market, it is not consistently translating into competitive bidding at auction. Buyers are actively comparing a larger pool of listings, testing vendor motivation, and concentrating their stronger offers on properties where price alignment, condition, and location clearly justify value.

Melbourne & Victoria Auction Market Analysis

Melbourne remains one of Australia’s largest auction markets and is therefore highly sensitive to shifts in buyer confidence and interest rate pressure.

For the week ending 21 June 2026, the preliminary results indicate a market that is still functioning, but clearly buyer-leaning rather than competitive.

• Melbourne clearance rate: ~50.6% (Cotality)
• Victoria preliminary clearance rate: 49.3% from 653 early auction results (realestate.com.au)

Buyer and Seller Behaviour in Victoria 

The Victorian market is no longer driven by fear of missing out. Instead, buyer behaviour has shifted decisively toward value assessment and risk control.

Buyer Behaviour Shift

Buyers are now:

• Taking more time to make decisions
• Demanding greater price transparency
• Focusing heavily on value justification
• Reducing emotional or competitive bidding behaviour

Buyers are no longer reacting quickly. They are validating purchases carefully.

Seller & Agent Reality

The selling environment has become more demanding:

• Auction conditions are tougher through winter
• Buyer competition is more selective
• Emotional bidding has reduced significantly
• Strong price justification is now essential to trigger interest

Agents are also facing a more difficult conversion funnel:

The key challenge is not attracting enquiry. It is converting it into active, committed bidders. 

A key psychological marker in the market is Melbourne’s median house value. Approximately $995,000, sitting just below the symbolic $1 million threshold. 

Buyer Impact:

• Reinforces perception of market softening
• Encourages negotiation mindset
• Strengthens value-driven purchasing behaviour

Seller Impact:

• Highlights need for realistic pricing
• Reduces reliance on peak-cycle expectations
• Increases importance of current comparable sales

 Property Types Performing Best

Market performance across Victoria is increasingly segment-driven rather than broad-based.

Strong Performing Segments

• Well-presented family homes
• School-zone properties
• Homes with strong lifestyle appeal
• Established suburbs with owner-occupier demand

These properties continue to transact when priced correctly and presented well.

Mixed / Conditional Performance

• Bayside properties (performance depends heavily on presentation and pricing)
• Middle-ring suburbs with strong amenity but varied stock quality

Underperforming Segments

• Prestige properties with ambitious pricing
• Investor-heavy apartment precincts
• Renovation-heavy homes requiring significant capital input
• Main-road or compromised-location properties

These segments are most exposed to cautious bidding and pass-ins.

Sydney & Major Capital City Market Comparison

Sydney auction market weakened materially during the week ending 21 June 2026, with preliminary clearance reported around 47.4%. This reflects a broader shift in buyer behaviour driven by high property prices, borrowing constraints, and reduced willingness to overextend in competitive bidding environments.

Sydney’s high median prices make the market particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates and borrowing capacity. With elevated mortgage costs and ongoing pressure on household budgets, buyers are increasingly cautious about overpaying, especially in outer suburbs and investor-heavy apartment markets.

Despite this softness, Sydney remains Australia’s most expensive housing market, with house medians still significantly higher than Melbourne. This continues to create a two-speed market structure:

• Premium lifestyle suburbs (Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore, Inner West, Northern Beaches) continue to attract strong owner-occupier demand
• Outer and affordability-constrained regions are more exposed to pass-ins and extended negotiations

Sydney Property Market Performance

Sydney’s performance is defined by selectivity rather than absence of demand.

Key Market Characteristics

• Clearance rate: ~47.4%
• High price sensitivity due to borrowing constraints
• Strong resistance in outer and investor-heavy apartment markets
• Continued demand in tightly held prestige suburbs

Key Insight: Australian Property Auction Market Report

Buyers are still active in Sydney. But they are only competing when the value is clearly justified.

Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth Auction Trends 

Compared to Melbourne or Sydney, Brisbane has historically been more private-treaty driven, meaning this should be taken carefully. Despite this, the low clearing demonstrates that Queensland auction buyers are also quite choosy. Although weekly clearance rates were erratic due to smaller auction samples in Adelaide and Perth, both markets still have better underlying private-sale fundamentals than their auction numbers may indicate. Due to affordability issues and a more circumspect public-sector buyer base, Canberra likewise performed below balanced conditions. Buyers are refusing to compete unless the listing passes a clear value criteria, not that buyers have vanished across the capitals.

Regional Victoria Property Market Update 

Regional Victoria continues to provide an important counterpoint to the metropolitan auction slowdown. While these markets are not immune to higher interest rates and softer buyer confidence, they continue to benefit from strong underlying fundamentals, including relative affordability, lifestyle migration, employment growth, infrastructure investment and sustained rental demand.

For buyers and investors, regional centres continue to offer opportunities that are increasingly difficult to find in metropolitan Melbourne. Rather than speculative growth, these markets are being supported by genuine owner-occupier demand, long-term liveability and resilient local economies.

Geelong Property Market Insights 

Geelong remains one of Victoria’s most resilient regional property markets. Its appeal continues to be driven by its coastal lifestyle, proximity to Melbourne, improved transport connections and relative affordability compared with metropolitan suburbs.

Family homes priced between $700,000 and $950,000 continue to attract solid buyer interest, particularly properties that are:

• Renovated or move-in ready
• Located close to quality schools
• Positioned near lifestyle amenities and transport links

Many buyers priced out of Melbourne continue to view Geelong as a practical alternative rather than a compromise, supporting ongoing demand across established residential areas.

Ballarat Real Estate Trends 

Ballarat continues to attract a diverse buyer pool, including first-home buyers, remote workers and investors seeking stronger rental yields than those typically available in inner Melbourne.

Demand remains strongest for:

• Established family neighbourhoods
• Homes close to schools and public transport
• Properties offering larger land content at accessible price points

Although buyers remain cautious, Ballarat’s affordability advantage over Melbourne continues to provide a strong structural foundation for long-term demand.

Bendigo Investment Opportunities 

Bendigo continues to strengthen its position as one of Regional Victoria’s most attractive long-term investment markets. The city benefits from a diversified economy supported by healthcare, education, infrastructure investment and continued population growth.

Its relatively tight rental market continues to underpin investor demand, particularly as some investors reduce exposure to higher-risk metropolitan apartment markets.

Rather than being viewed as simply a regional alternative, Bendigo is increasingly recognised as a long-term growth corridor with strong fundamentals.

For Ham Kerr’s investor and landlord audience, the message is that regional markets should be assessed through rental demand, infrastructure, employment diversity and owner-occupier appeal. The strongest regional opportunities are not speculative. They are properties supported by clear tenant demand, strong community infrastructure and long-term liveability. 

Buyer and Vendor Sentiment in 2026

Market sentiment in 2026 continues to favour buyers, although demand has not disappeared. Instead, buyer psychology has shifted significantly from fear of missing out to fear of overpaying. Purchasers are taking a more measured approach by comparing listings, analysing comparable sales, confirming finance approvals and waiting to see whether vendors adjust their price expectations.

On the vendor side, sentiment has become increasingly pragmatic. The sharp rise in auction withdrawals suggests many sellers would rather postpone campaigns, negotiate privately or accept strong pre-auction offers than risk a public pass-in. This does not mean auctions have lost their effectiveness; rather, they require more realistic pricing, stronger buyer engagement and greater campaign flexibility than in previous years.Buyer Negotiation Trends

The current lower-clearance-rate environment has strengthened buyers’ negotiating position.

Today’s buyers are increasingly:

• Comparing a wider range of available properties
• Reviewing recent comparable sales before making offers
• Securing finance before entering negotiations
• Waiting for vendors to adjust price expectations

Passed-in properties have become particularly attractive, as buyers recognise that vendors are often more willing to negotiate following an unsuccessful auction.

Although clean contract terms, strong finance approval and the ability to make quick decisions remain competitive advantages, buyers are becoming far less willing to exceed their budgets simply to secure a property under the hammer.

Vendor Expectations and Pricing Strategies

Vendor expectations are gradually becoming more aligned with current market conditions.

Rather than relying on peak-market pricing, successful vendors are adapting their campaigns based on buyer feedback and market response. In the current environment, flexibility and realistic pricing are proving far more valuable than holding firm to ambitious price expectations.

Successful vendors in this market are the ones who listen early. If buyer feedback is consistent, the campaign must adapt. If the quoted range is not generating inspections, the price strategy needs review. If multiple buyers are interested but none are registering, the agent must understand whether the barrier is price, condition, contract terms or confidence.

Macroeconomic and Global Context 

Interest rates remain the single biggest pressure point influencing Australia’s residential property market. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the cash rate at 4.35% following a series of consecutive rate increases, with commentary after the latest decision indicating that further tightening remains possible should inflation remain above target.

Mortgage rates above 6% continue to reduce borrowing capacity, limiting affordability and contributing to slower buyer decision-making. As financing costs remain elevated, purchasers are becoming increasingly cautious and less willing to stretch their budgets during auction campaigns.

Government Policy and Investor Confidence 

Policy uncertainty is also affecting sentiment. Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions have intensified debate around investor participation. Even though implementation timelines and final settings matter, markets often respond to uncertainty before policy takes effect. Investor caution is therefore feeding into weaker apartment demand, more selective bidding and concern about future resale values. 

Cost-of-living pressure remains another constraint. Insurance, utilities, food, repayments and general household expenses are all shaping buyer budgets. This is particularly relevant for upgraders, who may want to move but are reluctant to take on higher debt in a volatile environment.Globally, uncertainty remains elevated through slower growth, geopolitical risk and financial market volatility. Australia’s housing market still has structural support from migration, rental shortages and limited new supply, but auction clearance rates show that structural demand does not automatically translate into strong short-term bidding when affordability is stretched.

Property Market Forecast & Investment Opportunities

Australia’s property market is expected to remain relatively subdued over the coming months as buyers continue to balance affordability pressures with ongoing economic uncertainty. While demand remains present, confidence is likely to recover only gradually, making pricing discipline and strategic decision-making increasingly important for buyers, sellers and investors alike.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Over the next three months, combined capital city auction clearance rates are expected to remain within the 45%–55% range, unless interest rate expectations improve significantly.

Winter seasonality is likely to reduce auction volumes throughout the coming months. However, lower listing volumes alone are unlikely to restore stronger competition if buyer confidence remains fragile.

Looking further ahead over the next six to twelve months, market performance will largely depend on several key economic indicators:

• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy
• Inflation trends
• Employment conditions
• Housing listing volumes
• Investor confidence

Market Outlook Scenarios

Opportunities for Buyers

The current market continues to present favourable opportunities for well-prepared buyers.

Recommended strategies include:

• Targeting passed-in properties where vendors may be more willing to negotiate.
• Negotiating confidently in a buyer-leaning market.
• Focusing on quality assets with strong long-term fundamentals.
• Avoiding emotional bidding during competitive auctions.

Before making strong offers, buyers should ensure finance approval is fully confirmed. In the current environment, clean contract terms, finance certainty and the ability to act quickly remain significant competitive advantages.

Advice for Sellers and Investors

Advice for Sellers

Successful campaigns increasingly depend on realistic pricing and responsiveness to market feedback.

Sellers should:

• Price accurately from the start of the campaign.
• Invest in property presentation to maximise buyer appeal.
• Carefully consider genuine pre-auction offers.
• Monitor buyer feedback throughout the campaign and adjust strategies where necessary.
• Set realistic reserve prices to maximise the likelihood of competitive bidding and avoid difficult post-auction negotiations.

Advice for Investors

Investors should continue to focus on properties supported by strong long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market speculation.

Priority should be given to:

• Rental-demand corridors
• Strong cash-flow opportunities
• Low-vacancy locations
• Properties with broad tenant appeal

At the same time, investors should remain cautious when considering investor-heavy apartment markets and speculative prestige properties, where demand remains more sensitive to interest rate movements and changing market conditions.

Key Takeaways of Australian Property Auction Market Report

1. The combined capital clearance rate fell to 47.4%, the weakest preliminary result since April 2020.
2. Melbourne and Victoria remain buyer-leaning, with results around 49%-51%.
3. Sydney is also under pressure, especially in affordability-constrained segments.
4. Withdrawals and pre-auction deals are rising as vendors seek certainty. 
5. Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo remain structurally supported. 
6. Pricing discipline and negotiation strategy are now essential.

Market Summary & Interpretation

The current market shift reflects an environment where buyers remain active but increasingly cautious. Higher mortgage rates, with the RBA cash rate at 4.35%, combined with ongoing cost-of-living pressures and uncertainty around proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions, are all contributing to subdued confidence levels.

In response, vendors are adapting their strategies. Many are withdrawing campaigns earlier, accepting pre-auction offers, and negotiating more flexibly following passed-in results. This reflects a broader shift toward certainty and risk reduction in transaction behaviour.

Melbourne & Regional Market Conditions 

For Melbourne sellers, pricing accuracy has become critical. Well-presented family homes in strong school-zone and lifestyle suburbs can still generate competitive interest; however, properties requiring significant renovation, located in compromised positions, or guided with overly ambitious price expectations are increasingly struggling to create urgency among buyers.

At the same time, Regional Victoria continues to show relative resilience. Markets such as Geelong, Ballarat, and Bendigo continue to attract buyers due to affordability advantages, lifestyle appeal, infrastructure access, and stronger rental fundamentals. While these regions are not immune to broader economic pressures, they remain structurally better supported than weaker investor-heavy apartment segments.

Market conditions are expected to remain buyer-friendly through the winter period. In this environment:

• Buyers should focus on passed-in opportunities and negotiate confidently
• Sellers should prioritise presentation quality, accurate pricing, and flexibility throughout campaigns
• Market success will continue to depend heavily on realistic expectations and early response to buyer feedback

Ready to navigate today’s buyer-leaning market with confidence?

Whether you are buying, selling, or investing in Melbourne or Regional Victoria, our team can help you make informed property decisions backed by real market insights.

Visit: Ham Kerr Property