Weekly Australian Auction Market Analysis: 26–28 September 2025

The Melbourne auction market pushed through spring’s final stretch with the kind of stamina that has defined this campaign, absorbing a surge in listings and still clearing the bulk of quality stock. Following last week’s Super Saturday result, where combined capitals achieved 72.3 per cent and Melbourne cleared 75.7 per cent, this week settled into a more sustainable rhythm. Melbourne recorded 1,345 scheduled auctions with 984 reported results and a clearance rate of 68 per cent. That is a step down from the frenzy of Super Saturday, but it is still a strong outcome given the Melbourne Cup lull, the snap-back in volumes that inevitably follows, and the persistent headwind of higher serviceability. The median sale price in Melbourne came in at $991,000, pointing to firm buyer depth in family-friendly corridors and renewed activity from investors targeting yield and depreciation benefits as the year winds down.

Nationally, the picture remains constructive. Sydney matched Melbourne’s momentum with a 69 per cent clearance rate from 1,535 auctions and a median of $1,636,500. Adelaide was characteristically solid at 66 per cent despite tighter volumes, while Canberra held near seasonal norms. Brisbane was the outlier again at 39 per cent, reflecting softer conditions through the mid-market even as trophy assets in Bulimba and Clayfield achieved premium prices. Across the combined capitals, clearance hovered around 65 per cent—still consistent with balanced-to-sellers’ conditions and evidence that buyers are willing to compete for well-located property despite the rate backdrop.

Melbourne’s regional split tells the story of this market cycle. The South East posted an impressive 83.3 per cent clearance rate as families prioritised school catchments, commuter accessibility and lifestyle amenity. The Inner East lagged at 61.8 per cent, a signal that buyer resistance is emerging at current guide levels for high-end, discretionary stock. North East suburbs such as Mount Waverley and Glen Waverley topped the auction calendar with more than 30 scheduled auctions each, a bellwether for sustained demand in gentrifying, infrastructure-rich precincts positioned between affordability and lifestyle. Notably, units outperformed houses this week—73.2 per cent clearance for apartments versus 69.7 per cent for houses—underscoring strong investor and first-home buyer interest in compact, yielding assets in well-serviced urban corridors. That divergence has become more pronounced as affordability constraints push buyers toward smaller formats and as investors re-enter submarkets where rents have reset higher.

The macro setting took a decisive turn with the Reserve Bank’s November decision to hold the cash rate at 3.60 per cent while lifting its inflation forecast to 3.2 per cent—still above the target band. Near‑term rate cuts have effectively been priced out, and that clarity has had a paradoxical effect: urgency. Finance-ready buyers who sat on the sidelines waiting for relief are now stepping in, and vendors who were considering pushing listings into 2026 are bringing properties forward to capture the remaining spring demand. This psychological shift is evident in stronger mid‑campaign engagement, cleaner auction terms and a rise in pre‑auction offers where competition is fiercest.

Beyond the city fringe, Geelong continued to outshine. Geelong West recorded a 72.7 per cent clearance rate and quarterly price growth of 3.7 per cent, consolidating its role as the principal spillover market for families priced out of inner‑middle Melbourne. With a median around $850,000, value remains compelling relative to comparable inner‑east Melbourne houses, and that gap—paired with lifestyle advantages—has pulled more committed buyers down the Princes Freeway. Ballarat and Bendigo remain stable: investor enquiry has lifted in both, and days on market are broadly in line with regional norms. Across regional Victoria, the tight rental market continues to anchor values; yields in the 3–4 per cent range are drawing capital toward well-located houses and low‑maintenance townhouses close to transport and schools.

Behavioural shifts at the coalface are worth noting. Clearance strength sits alongside a higher incidence of negotiated outcomes: pass‑ins at realistic vendor reserves are converting post‑auction the same day, and early offers are back in fashion as buyers try to avoid open competition. Underquoting noise has faded as quoting has normalised around evidence from September’s run of auctions, which has improved bidder confidence and reduced unnecessary friction late in campaigns. Stock quality matters: renovated, move‑in‑ready homes in walkable locations are still attracting multiple bidders, while properties requiring heavy capex are meeting resistance unless guides reflect the true cost of money and materials.

Taken together, the data points to a market that is not overheating but is undeniably resilient. Volumes are higher, clearance remains healthy, and price medians are holding because the demand stack—upgraders, downsizers and selective investors—is broad enough to absorb supply. That aligns with what we are seeing on the ground across our open homes and auctions: consistent enquiry, serious due diligence, and a willingness to transact when the right property appears.

As we pivot toward December, the playbook is straightforward. Sellers who are ready should list now: activity tapers seasonally post‑December, and this late‑spring window is the last clean runway before holiday‑season distractions set in. Presentation, pricing discipline and strategic pre‑auction engagement remain the keys to unlocking premium outcomes. Buyers should recognise that rate relief is not imminent and act decisively on quality property—finance pre‑approval in hand, building and pest arranged early, and a clear walk‑away number. Investors should continue to favour supply‑constrained inner and middle‑ring suburbs in Melbourne and resilient regional hubs like Geelong; avoid speculative outer‑area sprawl and oversupplied high‑rise where incentives mask underlying risk.

For clients seeking more granular guidance, our team can assist with end‑to‑end strategy: from leasing and asset optimisation (see Property Management at https://hamkerr.com.au/property-management) to campaign design and negotiation for vendors (see Residential Sales at https://hamkerr.com.au/sales) and site selection for commercial owners and developers (see Commercial Real Estate at https://hamkerr.com.au/commercial). The theme is consistent across each service line: the combination of steady demand, low vacancy and disciplined preparation continues to reward well‑priced, well‑presented assets.

Bottom line: Melbourne is still a sellers’ market heading into the final weeks of spring. Clearance at 68 per cent with elevated volumes, Sydney holding 69 per cent, Adelaide steady, and Brisbane softer but selective at the top end—this is a market supported by tight rental conditions, population growth and buyer urgency in the face of a prolonged rate hold. Opportunities are real for those prepared to move with conviction, and discipline will remain the difference between participating and winning.