Melbourne and Regional Auction Market Update: 12–14 September 2025

The auction market has once again shown its resilience, holding steady despite high interest rates and cautious buyer sentiment. Over the weekend of 12–14 September, clearance rates across Australia’s capital cities remained in the 70 to 75 per cent range, driven by renewed spring activity. Melbourne led the way with 1,185 scheduled auctions and a clearance rate of 71 per cent, matching Sydney’s result from 992 auctions. Adelaide and Canberra were slightly softer, while Brisbane continues to lag at 50 per cent.

Regional centres reflected the same trends. Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo all recorded clearance rates close to 70 per cent. Median house prices are holding up with Melbourne at $1.3 million, Geelong at $820,000, Ballarat Central at $585,000 and Bendigo at $620,000. Ballarat has been particularly steady with a clearance rate of 70.7 per cent, modest price growth and private sales contributing $8.7 million in weekly turnover. Bendigo and Geelong showed consistent competition, highlighting the ongoing strength of demand in regional Victoria despite affordability pressures.

Melbourne’s REIV report showed 822 auctions with a final clearance rate of 83 per cent, slightly lower than last week’s 87 per cent. Total sales numbered 682, with a combined sales volume of $861 million. Houses cleared at 84 per cent with a median price of $1.3 million, while units cleared at 78 per cent with a median of $780,000. Eastern and inner-southern suburbs experienced competitive bidding, with vendor discounts below three per cent, reflecting a recovery in buyer engagement.

Vendor confidence has improved since winter, with Domain reporting a three per cent increase in auctions. Buyers are back in the market, though affordability remains a concern. Smaller capitals such as Adelaide (75.9 per cent clearance) and Perth (84.6 per cent, on low volumes) demonstrate steady demand. Limited supply, ongoing population growth and migration of around 120,000 people annually continue to support housing demand, even in a high-rate environment.

Economic and global factors remain influential. The RBA is expected to deliver two 25 basis point cuts by mid-2026 if inflation trends toward 2.5 per cent, increasing buyer capacity. U.S. bond yields above 4.2 per cent maintain elevated funding costs for investors, and construction supply remains tight with new commencements falling five per cent for the quarter.

Looking ahead, clearance rates are expected to stabilise at 70–75 per cent as spring auctions peak in October. Regional growth corridors like Geelong and Ballarat are poised for a three to five per cent uplift if rate cuts materialise. Risks include affordability pressures in high-density and coastal markets and the potential for inflation to delay rate relief, but overall the market remains balanced with pockets of growth.

For vendors, listing before mid-October is recommended to capitalise on spring demand. Investors should focus on regional centres such as Bendigo and Ballarat Central, where entry prices and yields remain attractive. Developers should monitor the supply pipeline, with well-located infill projects near transport hubs positioned to benefit from tight supply.

The bottom line is that Melbourne and regional markets have stabilised, clearance rates remain consistent, buyer sentiment is improving, and vendor confidence is recovering. Despite high interest rates and global uncertainty, population growth and constrained supply continue to underpin property values. The market is competitive, balanced, and full of opportunity for those ready to act.