Weekly Australian Auction Market Analysis: 26–28 September 2025

The last significant auction weekend before the 2025 end‑of‑year slowdown revealed softening clearance rates across Melbourne and Sydney, mixed metro performances and persistent momentum in certain segments. According to realestate.com.au preliminary results:

• Victoria (statewide)recorded a ~54 % clearance rate from around 470 reported auctions; 129 sold under the hammer with a further 107 selling prior and 19 after auction. There were a high number of withdrawals (103) and passed‑ins (112) as sellers tested the year‑end market. 
• New South Walesclearance sat near 49 %, while Queensland posted ~48 %, and South Australia ~70 %; Canberra cleared ~58 %. 
• These rates mark a weaker finish than spring’s earlier robust weeks, reflecting both seasonal fatigue and cautious buyer behaviour at current price points.
• Across all capitals, private sales remain significant, with thousands of off‑auction transactions recorded alongside auctions — underscoring that many vendors are choosing negotiated sales over auctions late in the season.

National commentary and forecasts reflect continued price growth in the backdrop despite cooling auction markets. PropTrack data suggests combined capital city median home values may rise another 6–8 % through 2026, potentially pushing the national median above $1 million.

Market message:
Buyers remain selective and price‑sensitive, with clear competition for premium and well‑presented stock. Vendors still able to price realistically are securing results, while properties needing work or higher price guides face greater resistance.

Melbourne Metro Market Commentary

Although the official clearance rate for Greater Melbourne is weak at present (reflected in the wider Victoria figure), broader realestate.com.au sold data shows a high volume of private‑sale transactions over the weekend, particularly across the middle and outer suburbs.

Residential Sales Highlights

• Solid full‑price sales were recorded on 20 Dec, including high‑end properties in Oakleigh, Doncaster and Forest Hill exceeding $1.3m–$1.5m.
• The Melbourne apartment sector continued actively trading, with a range of inner‑city and Docklands apartment deals noted in the days leading up to the weekend.

Market Interpretation:
Auction rates under 60 % in Melbourne reflect both seasonal slowdown and stronger vendor expectations. Many potential buyers retreated as the year ends, opting to revisit the market in late January and February 2026. Meanwhile, private treaty sales recorded strong turnover — a sign that many transactions are still getting done where price and terms align.

Regional Victoria Trends: Geelong, Ballarat & Bendigo

Geelong

Although specific auction‑by‑auction data for Geelong over the weekend wasn’t reported in the preliminary results, anecdotal market reporting suggests steady demand persists for well‑presented family homes and coastal lifestyle stock. Buyer interest remains strongest in waterfront and amenity‑rich pockets, particularly where properties are turnkey.

Ballarat

Ballarat’s market continues to be driven by price‑sensitive buyers seeking value relative to metro‑Melbourne alternatives. While auction activity is quieter as the year closes, private sales are holding momentum, especially for walk‑to‑amenity homes destined for first home buyers and downsizers.

Bendigo

Bendigo has seen moderate private sale activity, with auctions running at lower volumes this week. Properties with strong location fundamentals and good presentation have continued to attract attention, with buyers still willing to transact even as auctions slow.

Regional sentiment:
Buyer focus in regional Victoria remains pragmatic — favouring quality stock at fair value rather than speculative pricing — and many vendors are switching to negotiated sales as a year‑end strategy.

Notable Sales & Market Highlights

Although auction clearance data points to a soft finish, individual private sales highlight price resilience across key segments:

• Premium house sales above $1.3m in established Melbourne suburbs over the weekend — e.g., Forest Hill and Doncaster.
• Apartment turnover in inner Melbourne and Docklands continues, showing liquidity in urban multi‑residential stock despite the broader auction dip.
• National forecasts suggest median home values may surpass $1 million across combined capitals in 2026 — a structural backdrop of longer‑term value resilience.

Buyer & Vendor Sentiment

Buyers:

• Exhibiting caution as auction clearance rates soften; many are waiting for 2026 when seasonal noise abates and clearer pricing emerges.
• Strong appetite remains for well‑priced family homes and apartments in quality locations, but price sensitivity is acute.

Vendors:

• Many sellers are withdrawing auctions or converting to private treaty in response to weaker auction competition.
• Vendor confidence remains solid where recent comparable sales justify price expectations, but aggressive guide prices are increasingly penalised by passing‑in.

Notable Sales & Market Highlights

Although auction clearance data points to a soft finish, individual private sales highlight price resilience across key segments:

• Premium house sales above $1.3m in established Melbourne suburbs over the weekend — e.g., Forest Hill and Doncaster.
• Apartment turnover in inner Melbourne and Docklands continues, showing liquidity in urban multi‑residential stock despite the broader auction dip.
• National forecasts suggest median home values may surpass $1 million across combined capitals in 2026 — a structural backdrop of longer‑term value resilience.

Macro & National Economic Factors

Several broader market forces are shaping auction and housing market dynamics:

• Price Growth Moderation:While auction activity softens, national dwelling values – particularly in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide — have shown quarter‑on‑quarter increases, with Melbourne’s growth more modest.
• Buyer Behaviour Trends:Anecdotal reports from market commentators point to increasing cases of buyer caution and even post‑purchase “buyers’ remorse”, echoing broader affordability and psychological pressure in high‑competition markets.
• Long‑Term Fundamentals:Forecasts suggest Australia’s property values could continue modest growth into 2026, underpinned by migration, income growth and supply constraints – although interest rate direction and economic conditions remain key variables. 

Overall, seasonality and price sensitivity are currently outweighing outright bullish demand – particularly in headline clearance figures — even as structural value drivers persist.

Short‑Term Outlook & Forecasts

As the market transitions toward the calendar year turnover period:

Next 4–8 Weeks

• Auction volumes will decline sharply into late December & January, meaning clearance rates become less reliable as a weekly benchmark.
• Private treaty salesare likely to dominate in many markets, especially for properties that would have gone to auction earlier in the season.
• Buyer competition may re‑intensify Feb–Mar 2026, especially in Sydney and Melbourne’s sought‑after middle rings as the market reboots.

Key Risks

• If affordability pressures persist, some price segments could see longer negotiation periods before sale.
• Seasonal noise and holiday timing may suppress participation even in quality stock categories.

Opportunities

• Shrewd buyers and vendors working with realistic guides and strong due diligence stand to benefit in the quieter months as comparables reset.

Looking ahead, auctions will taper off through late December and January, with private treaty deals likely to become the dominant channel. The market is expected to restart strongly in late February–March 2026, particularly for quality homes in established suburbs.

If you’re thinking about selling or buying in early 2026, now is a valuable time to review your strategy – understanding current performance and seasonal patterns will help you enter the year with clarity and confidence.